NATURAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND ITS MODES

This course will provide a review of our current understanding of natural climate variability. Topics will range from the characterization, attribution and simulation of natural climate variability to its predictability and prediction. Focus will be on intrinsic climate variability and its underlying processes, and on natural forcing agents of climate - including volcanic and tropospheric aerosols, and variations in solar activity - and their associated response mechanisms. Lectures will make practical reference to several prominent modes of natural climate variability on interannual to centennial time scales, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and the North Atlantic Oscillation. These modes will serve to illustrate the uncertainties arising from the interaction between the climatic response to external natural forcing and the background climate, including the mean climate state and the phase of ongoing internal climate variability. Recent significant advancements in the predictability of natural climate variability and associated outstanding issues, hence major opportunities for progress, will be also discussed in the light of the representation of climate modes and the implementation of natural forcing in current climate models. Lectures will largely refer to the preindustrial period of the last millennium, touching upon the climate reconstruction problem and the proxy-simulation comparison.

Knowledge of the natural forcing agents of climate variability on timescales from interannual to centennial, and of the underlying response mechanisms. Knowledge of the current implementations of natural forcing in climate models and associated limitations and uncertainties. Development of critical evaluation skills in the assessment and attribution of interannual to centennial climate variability, also in the paleoclimate context and for future scenarios.

Basic knolwedge of climatology and statistics

key general concepts of dynamics of interannual and interdecadal climate variability; theoretical understanding of natural forcing agents of climate: volcanic aerosols, tropospheric aerosols and variations in solar activity; implementation of natural forcing in climate models; response mechanisms; detection and attribution of climate variability; predictability and prediction of natural climate variability; the climate reconstruction problem and proxy-simulation assessment.

oral exam on the topics of the lectures

frontal lessons with discussions initiated with the students

oral