RISK AND UNCERTAINTY

This is a compulsory course that provides the formal tools to reason about chance and its properties. The ability to adequately represent risk and uncertainty is a fundamental step in supporting decision-making, that is a defining characteristic of the managerial roles.

This course provides an introduction to probability theory, viewed as the scientific language to deal with risk and uncertainty. It emphasises an applied approach with reference to the use of probability in finance and insurance problems. Due to the cuts in teaching enacted by the Academic Senate (1 ECTS=3.75 actual hours of frontal instruction), this 6-ECTS course may cover less than what is customarily expected in similar courses taught across the European Union.

a) Knowledge and understanding:
a.1) Ability to interpret simple probabilistic statements.
a.2) Ability to think formally about chance.
a.3) Ability to recognize and use the most common probability distributions, both discrete and continuous.

b) Applying knowledge and understanding:
b.1) Ability to deal with simple combinatorial problems.
b.2) Ability to manipulate and use basic probability laws.
b.3) Ability to build formal models for solving simple insurance problems.

c) Making judgements
c.1) Ability to evaluate and compare basic contracts based on risky events.

This course emphasizes applications over theory. The formal prerequisite is successful completion of the first-year course in Mathematics.

Combinatorial probability.
General rules of probability.
Discrete random variables.
Continuous random variables.
Multivariate distributions.

A. Asimow and Mark M. Maxwell, Probability and Statistics with Applications: A Problem Solving Text, 2nd ed., 2015.

[Optional reading (in Italian): M. Li Calzi, La matematica dell'incertezza, Il Mulino, 2016.]

Grading is based on a final written exam. This consists of at least ten (possibly, more) questions, each with its own score. At least 21 points (out of a minimum of 30) are amenable to (possibly, variations on the) questions taken from the textbook and listed in a Study Guide made available during the course.

The exam is closed-notes and closed-book, but you are allowed to use a pocket calculator and two sides of an A4-sheet prepared by you at home. Failing to register for the exam is sufficient cause for being denied admission.

Lectures, practice sessions, and tutorials.

For more information and updates, trust only the class webpage: http://mizar.unive.it/licalzi/risk.html

Ca’ Foscari abides by Italian Law (Law 17/1999; Law 170/2010) regarding support services and accommodation available to students with disabilities. This includes students with mobility, visual, hearing and other disabilities (Law 17/1999), and specific learning impairments (Law 170/2010). If you have a disability or impairment that requires accommodations (i.e., alternate testing, readers, note takers or interpreters) please contact the Disability and Accessibility Offices in Student Services: disabilita@unive.it.

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