G20 a rischio clima: atlante sul futuro delle più grandi economie del mondo
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Nello scenario peggiore, senza un'azione urgente per ridurre le emissioni climalteranti, le perdite di PIL causate dai cambiamenti climatici nei Paesi del G20 potrebbero raggiungere il 4% all'anno entro il 2050, valore che potrebbe superare l’8% entro il 2100 - praticamente il doppio delle perdite economiche da Covid-19 subite dai G20. Alcuni di questi paesi rischiano perdite peggiori, come il Canada, che potrebbe veder ridotto il proprio PIL di almeno il 4% entro il 2050 e di oltre il 13% - 133 miliardi di euro - entro il 2100.
Viceversa, contenendo l’incremento della temperatura globale entro i 2°C rispetto al periodo preindustriale, il costo potrebbe scendere allo 0,1% del PIL totale entro il 2050 e all'1,3% entro il 2100.
I dati emergono dal primo studio che fornisce scenari climatici, informazioni, dati e cambiamenti attesi nel clima e relativi impatti nei paesi del G20. Uno strumento che, a partire dalla scienza, fa luce sui rischi delle più grandi economie del mondo, progettato per sostenere il processo decisionale verso un'azione climatica efficace e scientificamente informata.
La Fondazione CMCC ha pubblicato il G20 Climate Risk Atlas: 20 Schede Paese con mappe e infografiche, un quadro completo delle conoscenze scientifiche più aggiornate sul clima, i rischi associati e gli impatti sulle economie, l'ambiente e le società. Il rapporto è stato realizzato con il supporto di European Climate Foundation e con il contributo scientifico di Enel Foundation.
L’atlante sintetizza le conoscenze scientifiche sugli impatti dei cambiamenti climatici attesi nei prossimi decenni nei paesi più industrializzati del mondo. Le informazioni derivano da esercizi di modellazione, dall'analisi dei dati, dall'uso di indicatori e da indagini sulla letteratura scientifica più recente, compresi gli articoli peer-reviewed, i technical reports e il materiale open access di progetti europei Horizon 2020.
L'Atlante è di facile consultazione, ricco di infografiche, mappe e brevi descrizioni in un linguaggio accessibile. Attraverso un’analisi approfondita dei settori chiave delle economie del G20, la ricerca valuta per ogni singolo paese gli impatti, i rischi e le interazioni con i cambiamenti climatici previsti per la metà e la fine del secolo, considerando diversi scenari di riscaldamento e diversi modelli di sviluppo.
G20 Climate Risk Atlas presenta informazioni sugli impatti dei cambiamenti climatici per ogni paese del G20 secondo 11 settori: Clima, Oceano, Coste, Acqua, Agricoltura, Foreste e Incendi, Città, Salute, Energia, Impatti economici e Politiche.
I possibili impatti
Dall'erosione costiera alla diffusione delle malattie tropicali, ogni paese del G20 è a rischio per gli impatti dei cambiamenti climatici. La ricerca evidenzia che l'aumento delle temperature e le intense ondate di calore potranno causare gravi siccità, minacciando disponibilità d'acqua essenziali per l'agricoltura, comportando perdite di vite umane e aumentando la possibilità di incendi.
Entro il 2050 le ondate di calore potrebbero durare almeno dieci volte più a lungo in tutti i paesi del gruppo dei 20, e oltre 60 volte più a lungo nel caso di Argentina, Brasile e Indonesia. In Europa, in uno scenario ad alte emissioni, i decessi legati ad eventi di calore estremo potrebbero aumentare da 2.700 all'anno fino a 90.000 all’anno entro il 2100.
I cambiamenti climatici influenzeranno anche la sicurezza alimentare: in India, il calo della produzione di riso e grano potrà provocare perdite economiche fino a 81 miliardi di euro entro il 2050 e una perdita del 15% del reddito degli agricoltori entro il 2100. A metà del secolo, la pesca in Indonesia potrebbe diminuire di un quinto, minando così i mezzi di sussistenza di parte della popolazione.
In un percorso ad alte emissioni, l'innalzamento del livello del mare potrebbe danneggiare le infrastrutture costiere nei prossimi 30 anni, comportando perdite di 404 miliardi di euro in Giappone e di 815 milioni di euro in Sudafrica.
In Australia, gli incendi boschivi, le inondazioni costiere e gli uragani potrebbero aumentare i costi assicurativi e ridurre il valore delle proprietà di 611 miliardi di dollari australiani entro il 2050.
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